Feeding nations : domestic food production and food security in SAARC countries through a panel ordered probit lens

Abstract

Introduction

South Asia is the second most poorest region in the world (SAARC, 2020). During the late 20th Century, the South Asian Alliance for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), discerned a boom in agriculture, enhanced by the Green Revolution, resulting in high-yielding crop varieties and high-input intensity (Tiwari et al., 2017). However, it was difficult for SAARC nations to cater to the growing demand caused by rapid population growth and urbanisation. Most of these countries faced significant economic changes over time, but their poverty and undernourishment levels are still concerning, and must be diligently addressed. The novel introduction of the three-tiered categorisation of the Food Production Index (FPI) helps to identify the probability of the SAARC nations being low, moderate or high food secure. This study employs a panel ordered probit analysis; a technique not previously applied to this type of econometric study.

It has been identified that land used for production, varying climate patterns and rising Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are key determinants of food security across SAARC nations (Behera et al., 2024). The SAARC region has experienced economic growth over the last few decades (Tiwari et al., 2017), while still retaining the highest rural population out of all other developing regions (FAO, 2001). Hence, it is vital to ensure the food security of these nations by focusing whether adequate food is produced to sustain its population. The study intends to contribute to the SDGs by exploring the impacts of greenhouse gases, expanding arable land and uncontrollable population growth, alongside persistently low food security levels which impacts the entire ecology.